In
1939, Estonia could justifiably feel quite contented with the results
of twenty years of independence. The economic depression was far
in the past, the agricultural sector had concrete domestic and foreign
markets, the industrial sector was developing.
In
the political sector, there was good reason to assume that the authoritarian
Päts regime would start to slowly shift towards parliamentary
democracy. Political prisoners had been amnestied, and the nation
did not have any internal enemies to fear. Even the 100 - 150 Communists
did not pose a serious threat.
But in the foreign policy sector,
things were rather shaky. Estonia lacked the strength to protect
its independence, and the international collective security system
was quite ineffective. When Stalin's Soviet Union and Hitler's Nazi
Germany approached each other, the result was the signing of the
mutual non-aggression treaty of 23 August 1939, the so-called Molotov-Ribbentrop
pact. Its secret clauses divided Europe up into spheres of influence.
Estonia fell into the USSR's sphere, thus becoming a potential victim
of aggression.
The Second World War started when
Germany attacked Poland on 1 September 1939. The Soviet Union concentrated
160,000 men and 600 tanks on Estonia's border (Estonia had a potentially
mobilizable army of 100,000 men and 30 tanks), and on September
24 demanded that the Red Army be allowed to establish bases in Estonia.
The Estonian government gave in. On the basis of a treaty signed
on September 28, 25,000 Soviet soldiers were permitted to enter
Estonia. With this, Estonia practically lost its independence, and
began the so-called Period of the Bases. On October 18, the first
Red Army units entered Estonian. On the same day, the first ship
full of Baltic-Germans, who Hitler had invited to return to the
fatherland, left Estonia. The Russian military authorities behaved
very self-confidently, constantly building and expanding their bases.
But at first, the Soviets did not interfere in Estonia's internal
politics, nor did they publicly promote Estonia's Communists.